July and August slow the export contraction to the United States on the back of rising average prices. The Unione Italiana Vini Observatory urges caution: the worst marketing year since 2015/2016 comes to a close amid inflation, tariff threats, and softening consumption.
A breath of fresh air for Italian wine in its leading global destination. Following months of sharp contraction, shipments to the United States staged an encouraging mini-rebound in July, advancing nearly 10% in value (+1.3% in volume), with average prices finally ticking up by more than 8%. An even more substantial gain is anticipated for August, though the summer two-month period compares against a dismal 2025 baseline that saw overall losses near 30%.
Summer Rebound and Autumn Outlook
According to findings by the Unione Italiana Vini (UIV) Observatory, July’s solid performance narrowed the cumulative deficit over the first seven months of the year, bringing the shortfall to -11% (down from -14% in June), with projections settling around -9.5% once August figures are finalized.
Yet the broader picture calls for restraint, as UIV Secretary General Paolo Castelletti points out: “It is too early to call a true reversal in overseas shipments, particularly as US consumer demand has yet to stage a meaningful recovery. To be sure, two consecutive months in positive territory have not been recorded since early 2025, easing palpable market strain ahead of critical autumn engagements with the American trade, beginning with Vinitaly in New York this October.”
Persistent headwinds continue to cloud the transatlantic outlook, as Paolo Castelletti continues: “The hurdles facing European wine in the US remain in full force: from the ongoing overcapacity probe with the looming threat of additional tariffs, to rampant inflation and the erosion of consumer purchasing power. For all these reasons, maintaining a proactive on-the-ground presence across the Atlantic is more pivotal than ever.”
The Worst Marketing Year in a Decade Draws to a Close
From a statistical standpoint, the industry has closed the most punishing marketing year (August 1, 2025 – July 31, 2026) in recent history. Deflated for inflation, the past commercial campaign stood at €1.634 billion, marking the lowest level in terms of both revenue and volume since 2015/2016—a real contraction of -15% against the previous five-year average.
The slump across the US market was driven by a convergence of compounding pressures: trade policy friction and tariff threats, a softer US dollar, and a structural downturn in consumer demand that dragged total extra-EU wine exports to lows unseen since the 2020–2021 pandemic period. This challenging climate spared neither Italy nor its peers: market-leading France weathered an even steeper contraction, closing the campaign with a nominal value drop of -22%, compared to Italy’s -16%.
Shipment volumes were further dampened by an extended de-stocking cycle across the US distribution tiers. Squeezed by elevated interest rates and the rising cost of working capital, importers and wholesalers moved aggressively to deplete warehouse inventories by curbing upstream reorders, with an immediate, direct blow to cellar-door outflows across European wineries.
Shifting Consumption Habits: Beyond Traditional Wine
Beyond cyclical macro trends, structural shifts in American consumer preferences continue to reshape the marketplace. As highlighted by Carlo Flamini, Head of the UIV Observatory: “The market is navigating a profound transformation: tariff pressures broke aggressively into a transition that has been unfolding for at least half a decade. Demand is pivoting not only within the wine category itself—toward sparkling profiles, cocktails, and ready-to-drink options—but across alternatives such as hard teas and kombucha. These beverages align seamlessly with evolving, informal consumption occasions and lean into packaging formats that prioritize convenience and portability.”